DISTANCIAMENTO ESPACIAL E RESILIÊNCIA ECONÔMICA REGIONAL EM TEMPOS DE COVID-19: Primeiras Impressões de uma Discussão em Aberto
First Impressions of an Open Discussion
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.13037/gr.vol40.e20248283Palavras-chave:
Resiliência, COVID-19, Distanciamento espacial, ChoquesResumo
Devido à COVID-19, medidas objetivando distanciamento espacial—prática de evitar proximidade física entre pessoas para conter a propagação de doenças—provavelmente afetaram negativamente o nível de emprego e a geração de riqueza regional, porque empresas em diversos setores foram fechadas. Nesse contexto, analisamos dados de distanciamento espacial sob uma ótica de resiliência econômica regional. Nossa única variável foi um índice de distanciamento espacial coletado para os estados brasileiros de fevereiro a julho de 2020. Transformamos as séries temporais para garantir a estacionariedade, possibilitando calcular a correlação linear de Pearson. O menor coeficiente encontrado foi 0,85, indicando correlação positiva forte entre as séries. Devido às disparidades regionais, choques afetam distintas regiões de formas diferentes. Todavia, nossos resultados mostraram que os estados brasileiros se comportam de modo semelhante em relação ao índice adotado, sugerindo que este não seja um preditor aconselhável de resiliência econômica regional de curto prazo considerando o choque estudado.
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